Based on the volatility of both the positive and negative news from Wall Street, the economy, employment numbers, commodity prices and several other indicators you can get a huge number of bearish or bullish opinions right now given . We’ve named some bullish investors and economists, now is the chance for bears to weigh in.
If that kind of experience doesn’t get your attention, then perhaps nothing will.
Here’s what Taft recently had to say about market expectations for 2016.
A Bottom in 2017?
Based on the history of bear markets trading, Rick Taft, an investor and prop trader for Koyote Capital, believes that we’re in the midst of a major downturn comparable to 2009.
He’s a firm believer that history is repeated in a loop and that “it’s different this time” is not often accurate.
As you might expect, he doesn’t feel as though this would be the most optimal time to go long on stocks, as he believes the S&P 500 could drop another 11% from here.
One big concern he has is that indexes are being led by just a few stocks, and that there is no breadth.
The good news is that Taft expects the market to bottom in early 2017, which would then present a buying opportunity for patient investors.
Taft isn’t the only well-known name that is concerned about 2016.
China, Oil to Matter Heavily
Mark Dubee is the managing director and chief fixed income strategist at Hilltop Securities. He’s concerned about China and oil. Regarding China, he believes that actual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is nowhere near the reported 6.9%, but closer to 2%.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, January layoffs were the highest since last July, with retail and energy cutting the most jobs. Overall, 75,114 jobs were cut, which was a 200% increase from December and a 42% increase year over year.
In retail, 22,246 jobs were cut, which was the highest reading in seven years. U.S. holiday sales increase 8%, but part of the reason for the reduced headcount relates to the rising popularity of online shopping. Online sales jumped 25% year over year whereas brick and mortar sales slid 5%. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Macy’s, Inc. (M) have both been in the news for closing underperforming locations and slashing headcount. Walmart announced it would cut 16,000 positions and Macy’s announced it would cut 4,820 positions. (For more, see: Why Walmart’s Stock Price Keeps Falling.)
